The moment of truth for acting with fifteen February fragile ceasefire in the Donbass will come not when will begin the withdrawal of heavy weapons, and then, when the world is in Ukraine will become large-scale and widespread, says the Creator of the German edition Lutz Herden (Lutz Herden).
The ceasefire violations increases the probability of the cast to benefit one of the parties." Who is ready to take the risk - especially when Between combatants there is no hint to trust each other?" asks the Creator of the article.
however, the responsibility for maintaining the ceasefire somehow responsible only to militias, and Moscow, says the Creator: "the Ukrainian government, which knows that it controls only a part of the military forces in the East, they are freed of all sins. As if there is no nationalist volunteer battalions or financed by oligarchs " private military companies ", which until now were fighting their own war by its own laws and in Accordance with their interests."
in his vision, " do not become any safer world, while continuing ideological mobilization against Russia." The fact that on the next day After the entry into force of the ceasefire EU imposes fresh punishment, " belongs to the category of fatal signals. Journalist reminds about the fact that in exactly the same way it happened, and During the conclusion of the first Minsk agreements, and nothing good is not produced.
EU countries do my best to keep in Kiev's Pro-Western government, says the Creator. This predisposition, in his vision, had an impact on the progress of negotiations in Minsk." The Ukrainian state from the time of the change of power in Kiev a year earlier contained on funds from external sources and So had the opportunity to wage war, " emphasizes German Journalist. Now it is obliged to receive from the IMF $17, 5 billion
The task of the West, in the opinion of Heerden at any cost to keep Ukraine and prevent a recurrence of the situation After the "orange revolution" of 2004, that is, " the collapse of the Pro-Western camp in Kiev ".
After 1990, when relations Between East and West could start with a clean slate, in reality, it was back to the geopolitical order in which the winners made a bid for a new balance of forces is not in favor of Russia. Thus arose the European order - As it turns out, is unstable in the face of crises, concludes the Creator of the article.
Possible compromise that could cater for the Russian Federation in this situation, the Reporter sees in the transformation of Ukraine into a free buffer zone and the state bridge " Between Europe and Russia.
How to look like such Ukraine, as long as it seems very sketchy, says Lutz Herden. In any case, it is required to be " sovereign, but not anti-Russian ", he writes.