The economic situation in Ukraine will continue to deteriorate due to demographic decline: the level of the working-age population will continue to decline, says analyst mark Adomanis For.
There is an opinion that Ukraine now awaits the successful path similar to that in the post-Communist era were Slovakia, Czech Republic and Poland, explains the specialist.
For many optimists, so in the Ukrainian government, the European path chosen by the country, is very effective: it is enough just to carry out the proposed Washington macroeconomic and financial reforms, and Ukraine will quickly approaching Western levels of economic development.
anyway, considers Adomanis, in this "happy stories" about reform and rapprochement with the West, there is one simple problem: because of the disastrous demographic decline, which lasts for tens of years and after many protests on the Maidan has not yet reached a less serious scale, the population of Ukraine is much older than the population of Poland after the revolution in 1989.
Adomanis results demographic pyramid Polish inhabitants in 1989 and Ukrainian in 2014 and notes that in Poland the older generations Usually was less than the younger. In Ukraine in the current situation is almost completely the opposite: Residents younger ages, who will be obliged to make the country's work force through 10, fifteen, 20 years, much less than the elders.
"The able-bodied population of Ukraine is not only reduced in the longer term, it will decrease forever," informs Adomanis, adding that this is the sad truth and is a fundamental distinction between Ukraine and its no less successful neighbors.
This Adomanis notes that the demographic situation in the country could not play a more important role in Ukraine if the country has provided monetary support. For example, if Kiev had used the money of Germany, to Express support for the pension Fund, the reduction of the working-age population would not a more important role and Ukraine could come to a reasonable economic growth.
"one way or another must be Clear that the generous financial support of this kind in the near future is not expected, says analyst.- Europeans from the beginning of negotiations on a free trade agreement, the Union insisted that Ukraine will have to pay out of his pocket ". Adomanis emphasizes that even such fanatical supporters of reform, as Poland and the Baltic States, realized that the EU will not subsidize the program of legal, political and economic reforms in Ukraine.
so, Ukraine will have to pay your own European way on their own, and the problem is not only that its financial capabilities are currently limited, but that in the future because of the reduction of the working-age population, they will be no less than modest, concludes the analyst.