The main danger for the international status of the us currency - the situation in the United States. As warned by the former Minister of Finance Henry Paulson, Washington will have something to do With the uncontrolled growth of public debt And budget deficit, otherwise the dollar will lose privileged position.

Due to the fact that the us currency plays the role of the main global reserve currency, interest rates on dollar assets is low. This allows the country to withstand a large trade shortages, reduces economic risks, increases the liquidity of the financial market And provides U.S. banks expanded And the priority access To funds.

However, the former head of the Ministry of Finance of the USA Henry Paulson calls a "historical anomaly" that the dollar will maintain that status for so long.

"currently, the greatest potential of the Chinese yuan. The size of China's economy, prospects for improved integration into the world economy And the active efforts of internationalisation contribute to the enhancement of the role of the Chinese currency, " said Paulson in a publication published in the journal Foreign Affairs.

"The superiority of the dollar is due to a combination of historical events, geopolitical conditions after the Second world war, the policy of the Federal reserve, as well As the sheer size And dynamics of the American economy," writes Paulson. He recalled that in the first part of the twentieth century, the dollar And the British pound sterling was the, really, the equivalent of a reserve currency.

On the reverse side, I am convinced Paulson, China cannot be called a threat to the stability of the American currency. Until then, as long as China will not go completely To a market economy, the yuan will not have the opportunity to become a truly global foreign money.

The dominance of the dollar is causing more problems at the ex-Minister of Finance, the most With the increase in the share of developing countries in global GDP And of decreasing the US: nearly 40% in 1960 To 25% today. But the problem is not even that.

The future of the dollar, Paulson emphasizes, depends on the ability of the US capital to build a strategy which will give the opportunity to solve problems With national debt And structural budget deficit. As long as to speak about It is not necessary.

speed increasing financial obligations for the current occupant of the White house has no equal. To 19, 9 trillion inherited by Obama, trump managed to add five more. And This despite the promise to liquidate the debt for eight years.

the lack of budget of the United States - half a trillion dollars, And, according to the calculations the largest credit institutions, in 2020 the difference between costs And revenues will triple up To 4 trillion, the high since the Second world war. And the state dog exceeded a record 25 trillion. Zaimstvovanij grow faster than the economy. In 2019, GDP was up 2, 3% - about 850 billion dollars, And the debt - more than 1, 2 trillion.

People willing to lend mired in debt to the economy less. As can be seen From the statistics of the American Ministry of Finance, in March, the flight of foreign investors From U.S. debt, both private And public - was unprecedented. Per month foreign holders of treasuries dropped on 256 billion, reducing the total portfolio To 6, 81 trillion.

From 33 countries - the largest creditors of the U.S. economy increased its investments only in Japan (for 3, 4 billion), Switzerland (1, 3), Taiwan (4, 1), Philippines (1, 3) And Australia (1, 8). Actively sell US treasuries the Central banks of developing countries: they needed dollars to Express support for the falling of the national currency against the background of the fall of the coronavirus. Reduced portfolio of treasuries And Russia - With 12, 58 billion To 3, 8 billion.

The largest seller was Saudi Arabia - the Kingdom was rid of American securities on 25, 3 billion. In Brazil And India indicators much less - 21, 5 And 21 billion respectively.

As analysts underline, unlikely, But possible scenario of freezing of investments of a number of countries in U.S. bonds will cause a severe blow to the status of the dollar As a reserve currency.



<span style="color:darkgray
sections: Politics