American financial Agency Bloomberg informs About the main victim Covid-19: "the Coronavirus may be the death blow to the longest economic expansion in history ", stating that " the United States already have the ability to be in recession." in official data, the impact is not (yet) reflected, But in this case the truth Rather on the side of financial correspondents, occupying a high position than American bureaucrats. From a formal point of view the recession are considered to be officially confirmed only after the fact, How the economy of a particular country captures two quarters of reduction in GDP in a row, But it is easy to notice, because This definition is retarded, And, really, it is useful only If the situation is " borderline ", that is, when the Outlook is not very clear, the causes of changes in the economy, which means, it is necessary to consider the statistics literally under the microscope. In the case of coronavirus - all the more prosaic And a lot rougher: the reason for the decrease in GDP is obvious And evident, to stop its effects some budget or credit impacts is quite complex, almost unsolvable task. Question about how strong And prolonged compression of the American And European economy (despite the fact that China May have avoided recession), was not idle, for in the global interconnected economy crisis in the United States or the European Union can provoke (As shown in 2008) the crisis at the global level. But there is good news for the American economy. They are represented by the British financial times, pointing to the known empirical rule of choice of the recessions that the American Central Bank: "the Authors of the rules of the Federal reserve Bank of new York, who developed this method, indicate that historically, when the unemployment level increased to 0, 35-0, 50% from the most minimal level recorded in the last 12 months, the U.S. economy has almost always entered a recession. The good news is that for this reason, you can make quite clear conclusion: the U.S. economy was not in recession or not even close to recession, when in February the country was visited by a Coronavirus ". That's great, But this finding has an important drawback: "the Bad news is that the virus has been demonstrated in China, South Korea, Italy And other countries, it can cause extremely devastating recessionary forces in any economy in which it applies ". Bloomberg indicates that the impact of a coronavirus occurred in a system that already was in a vulnerable state: "Covid-19 struck the economy, which was More resilient than she seemed. The number of people employed outside agriculture increased by 1, 4% in January compared With the year before, which is fine. But industrial production decreased by 0, 8% in January compared With the year before. And the yield curve of government bonds (USA) was in dangerous proximity to inversion (inversion of the yield curve in which long-term interest rates below short-term, is a strong indicator of recession). The only strong indicator in January was the stock market, And now in the fashion industry, this indicator also flashes red." The USA is one of the States which have so-called financialization of the economy (financialization). In the American case (As in the case of the EU, But not China or Russia) the stock market, is not only an indicator of the wealth of the economy. Rather, If a little exaggerated, for the US And EU stock market Is the economy. American And European bonds currently bring a paltry or even negative income, forcing investors to keep their savings (which they expect in the future in the form of pensions) in stock, besides the story is About non-trivial amounts. Analysis Investment Company Institute, even If we take into account only the most common pension plan (so-called 501K), the story is About a couple of trillion dollars, And those dollars evaporate exactly at the front of savers that is unlikely to help their desire to consume additional goods or services. On the reverse side, It's the problem of a relatively wealthy American citizens, who generally have savings, and at the same time, 74% of working people in the US (data from the American Payroll Association) live from wage to wage And the introduction of even a month or two-month quarantine, which would imply the temporary closure of factories or services, will be merely a financial disaster. If you look at the situation from the inside Finance market, it is difficult to find reasons for confidence: "in the financial markets, by contrast, thrive on conversations About the recession." This is something that is felt As the beginning of a recession after a long bullish (growing.- Approx. Ed.) market, " said Bloomberg News John McClain, a portfolio Manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management." (Today) - 1st meeting day With a slight panic in the market, " he added. in a sense, the modern global economy resembles a bike, so she can be in dynamic equilibrium only in a state of forward motion, besides quick motion: If the growth stops, It does not only stop and important Problem, which increases the probability of conversion to a systemic crisis. in this context, it is logical that experts And investors require Central credit organizations And governments, so that they began to "actively pedaling" economy. And the first steps in this sense seems to be done: the Federal reserve promptly reduced the interest rate on the dollar, And similar measures May be implemented in other countries. The problem is that opportunities of this kind to stimulate small since the suppression of the 2008 crisis: lowering interest rates, which in the EU are already at a negative level, and in the US slightly exceeds One percent - not a very effective measure, and of the ability of countries to stimulate the economy with public money is also in some sense limited to a serious debt load of the States, " the collective West ". It turns out that quietly, the main hope that the world economy plunged into recession And pull for the US economy And Europe is becoming China, which is a coronavirus has already (seemingly) almost ill. As the flagship of the American business press, The wall Street Journal, " the Good news is that China seems to worked or at least slowed down the speed distribution (infection), laying the Foundation for a possible recovery of (economic) activities. One key Question: will the lifting of quarantine And other restrictions to new outbreaks in China? This can make the recovery of Chinese production is uneven ". Perhaps Donald Trump is quite disappointing to read that the American economy, despite all his efforts, dependent on China in terms of demand for American goods And supplies for American manufacturers, even including the vitally necessary medicines. Moreover, trump has presidential elections, which meant an abrupt And early resumption of the Chinese economy Is the best thing that could happen to his election campaign. However, such developments will benefit all: If at least one of the leading economies in the world will not really hurt badly because of the coronavirus, there is a chance that a global recession will still be able to defend themselves. <span style="color:darkgray