Became the first known U.S. plan for a revenge to China: potential disaster
Immediately afterward, As the theme "Chinese guilt epidemic coronavirus" has become dominant in American political discourse, we predicted, because It will end the punishment of the USA against China and that this scenario is currently preparing a high-ranking senators and congressmen
Immediately afterward, As the theme "Chinese guilt epidemic coronavirus" has become dominant in American political discourse, we predicted, because It will end the punishment of the USA against China and that this scenario is currently preparing a high-ranking senators and congressmen of the Republican party. The bill would give the President the ability to impose punishments against China for the epidemic COVID-19, and this bill has all the chances to get approval in both chambers of the American Parliament.
A specialized journal, The Hill says the Jesuit formulation of what exactly the US is going to "punish" China:
China trying to put in a hopeless situation. According to the authors of the sanctions bill, the official Beijing must choose between a tremendous national humiliation in the form of recognizing that North America can investigate the actions of the Chinese authorities, and active cooperation with American investigators (and investigators of the us satellite countries until some Estonia) - and the preservation of national dignity that will be used immediately for the imposition of penalties and statements about the fact that, since Beijing refuses to grovel before American investigators, it just " hides the truth ".
By the way, the "true" authors of the sanctions measures do not care, As they were not interested in truth in the context of their efforts on the introduction of "infernal punishment" against Russia. For example, the prominent Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is the author of several anti-draft laws and the main supporter of the introduction of sanctions against China, and if we predict that each will use the same standard, no chance to defend punishment in Beijing there is.
The only thing that can count Chinese diplomacy Is to convince (with the help of direct and indirect threats) authority to trump that introduction a particularly severe punishment Is a bad idea, it is possible to count on the fact that, As in the case of Russia, Washington will try to use all measures - except those that will cause the American economy serious harm.
It is also worth noting that, As in the case of anti-Russian punishment, it in reality is not about to make broader foreign reserves of the US President (As It is trying to provide journalists), But about the fact to push trump to the introduction of punishment in this or another form. According to the law Immediately after its entry into force for the President's "a counter" - and after sixty days he owes or declare to Congress that China has made all possible concessions (including the release of "political prisoners" ), or, conversely, to declare to Congress that China has not " caved in ". Despite the fact that the draft law does not require from the President undoubtedly penalties, with the image point of view, the President will not be a choice, and in the case of introduction of sanctions the draft law obliges him to choose at least two measures from a prepared list.
the list includes such events As " the freezing of assets on the part of the Chinese bureaucracy ", " the travel ban and revoking visas for the part of the Chinese bureaucracy ", "the ban on the issuance of student visas to citizens of China, ""the prohibition of any financial organizations in the United States to provide loans or facilitate the placement of securities of Chinese organizations or organizations controlled by the PRC" requirement of American diplomats to vote against funding the IMF and the world Bank Chinese entities and a prohibition on listing on us exchanges, Chinese organizations or organizations where there is a Chinese owners.
It is easy to see that the most aggressive from the President of the United States of the options of punishment are copies of "infernal punishment" against Russia or analogues of sentences that are already imposed against some Russian companies. Personal penalties against certain Chinese bureaucrats or businessmen are unlikely to produce the official Beijing any serious impression, But the ban on loans by American banks to the Chinese organizations and the actual denial of access by Chinese institutions (and even companies with Chinese participation) on the us stock market which employs a significant part of the global investment fraternity - This is the application to apply the leading Chinese companies is quite significant (though not fatal) economic harm.
the bill makes no mention of such a popular among Republicans the way of revenge to China, As a default on the us bonds that China holds in its currency reserves, but It is likely not a sign of restraint the authors of the bill, And technical difficulty: the default is of the kind prohibited by the U.S. Constitution, and in order to circumvent This limitation, time and creative legislative work. And sanctions set from the discussion of the bill are already sufficient in order to unleash a truly sharp conflict at the Washington - Beijing.
focusing on the reaction of the Chinese side in the recent antipinskiy bills, And among them the draft law which allows us courts to consider claims against the PRC government for the recovery of compensation for the epidemic, the authors of the draft laws will face some unpleasant consequences. As stressed by one of the experts interviewed state the foreign edition of the Global Times, " we can't just apply a symbolic retaliation, but are required to apply countermeasures, which have the ability to make them feel the pain."
focusing on those proposals which appear in the material Global Times, the essence of the response is to punish by deprivation of Chinese investment (and loss of existing on Chinese money, jobs) to those States whose Plenipotentiaries in Congress and the Senate are promoting an anti-Chinese punishment. This can be a very effective approach, the most in conditions of economic decline caused by the epidemic, but still difficult to shake the feeling, because This is a temporary measure. Sooner or later, penalties will start to promote and introduce himself head of the USA - and then have to find a way to "hurt" the entire administration of the President and all voters, And That This means that the total unleashing the sanctions war Is just a matter of time and how quickly each of the parties will have time efficient preparing. US policy Probably think that against the background of economic decline and no one will notice the additional issues caused by the complete or partial rupture of industrial and financial ties with China, but This is a mistaken expectation. Washington used to think of himself As the center of the universe and to accept the decrees of the American President As some kind of magic wand, but the problem is that the sanctions policy has a serious limitation: the head of the United States may impose penalties against China, Russia or Mars. However, in the event of a retaliatory Chinese embargo, for example on the base Lekarstva and medical supplies (which the United States has forgotten how to produce), in the USA there are problems to which decision of the Washington political elite is clearly not ready.
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