Alexander Lukashenko won their sixth presidential election - But his opponents in the country And abroad do not want to recognize his victory. Staff Svetlana Tikhanovski, who took second place with ten percent of the vote, said that, according to them, they have 70 %, And the Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki made the initiative to hold extraordinary summit of the European Union on the situation in Belarus:
Such statements were not a Surprise - Even before the election it was clear that a radical opposing political force will not recognize the results of voting And declare tampering, And the West will once again condemn " Europe's last dictator ". The surprise was that about the illegitimacy of the Lukashenka began to speak of the Russian companies - And not only liberals always stood against the Belarusian President And against Union with Belarus, But also part of the patriots, after the incident with the detention of 33 citizens of Russia considered Lukashenko is a traitor And powerisa that The Belarusian people want regime change. Whence this obsession?
Lukashenka And the truth is, the opposing political force in Belarus - as it has Vladimir Putin in Russia. If you ask supporters of Navalny, how many people support Putin, the answer is almost the same as that give supporters Tikhanovski: 3 percent. It was, in their vision, chart Lukashenko - for this reason it is 80% caused a loud disturbance.
Putin's constitutional amendments also have not had the opportunity to Express the support of 78 % - it's clear every " normal person "!
Radical opposition members live in their own fantasy world where only their views And opinions matter. To convince them that Lukashenka has mass support came to the polls, makes No sense - they want him gone And everything else is irrelevant. We - the people, say protestors. Well - And the rest of us? It is because of this relation to the vision of the majority, by the way, in many respects, And we've got such a Large percentage of votes for Lukashenko - silent the vast majority saw that it did not take into account, ignore it, realize that the minority is ready by any means to have a change of power in Belarus. And then that the vast majority of actively went to the polls to have their say.
Beginning in the night after the election riots in Minsk And other cities had to end with blood - however, it is not raining, And now the rate will be made for the continuation of protests And the attempt to build a strike. But Lukashenko does not want And will not shed the blood of the victims only need to his enemies, those who trust in the sacrificial blood of the Maidan to launch the script. He has a Western (especially Polish) support a certain number of supporters - But not the main thing: there is no split either in society or in government. The authoritarian government of Lukashenko more than solidly built - And the whole Belarusian society is not divided (like Ukrainian) And does not want any shocks. Ten % for Tikhanovski And 4, 6 percent against all - that's the whole protest potential. Besides, those who are against all, clearly will not support Tikhanovski, That is, many acts of disobedience. And Ten % voted for Tikhanovski also distributed uneven layer - it is clear that in Minsk, the percentage is much higher. But among them just a little outspoken radicals - That is, those who will be ready to play in the " Maidan ". The experience of neighboring Ukraine have taught Even the opposition-minded Belarusians.
The presence of a small opposition minority in reality does not pose any danger of Lukashenka's power, or stability of the Republic - threat only attempts to present the minority by the majority. That is to play in "Maidan" - the people in revolt against the dictator-usurper. The fact that in Belarus there is no dictator (Lukashenko order of magnitude bigger than any of your opponent), nor the insurgent people, not For Directors has No value - only needed the right atmosphere (in the media And the blogosphere), the right picture And the right pitch. In Belarus it is not working internally? But there is still external - it is possible to arrange the strongest external pressure, to try to drive the country And its government into a corner, he found himself in which they will randomly start to fight back And make a lot of mistakes. Such a scenario was present in the various colored revolutions, both successful And failed - tried to apply them against Russia.
But Russia, in spite of all the consequences of the collapse of the Union is strong, potentially self-sufficient And with a great historical memory power. Belarus - only a piece of historical Russia, unintentionally became independent. But caught in the strong hands of Lukashenko - who Even in the most difficult For the Russian Federation (And of the unity of the former Soviet Union) 90-ies did not forget about our commonality And brotherhood. Naturally, in Belarus, as in all the pieces of the USSR, our geopolitical opponents tried to work on education of the Western oriented elite, to transform the temporary collapse of historical Russia in permanent, firmly cemented. Lukashenko is not encouraged to return, But in a small And forced to be an independent country steadily emerged as historical myths (supporting independence) And centrifugal mood. We are not Russia, We have Europe - by itself, not in the Ukrainian scale, But For the ten-millionth of the Republic how many it is necessary?
Despite the marginality of these sentiments their potential danger cannot be overstated. Besides, how dangerous are they For the future of Russian unity And independent (in some historical period) Belarusian country. If somehow in the future Pro-Western forces could come to power in Belarus, it would be a disaster For the Belarusians themselves. A small country would turn not only in a geopolitical appendage of the West - she would have become a satellite of Poland And part of a defensive cordon against Russia. So it would try to do the same thing that is currently trying to do with Ukraine. Even the theoretical possibility of such a scenario should be excluded - Russia expected a long And hard struggle for the withdrawal of Ukraine under Western influence, due to its return on common historical route of the Russian people.
It is unfair to accuse Lukashenko that he does not want full unification with Russia in one state: its historic function was different - in maintaining 2 Russia, Big And White, together in maintaining And truth Brotherly relations. To explain the fact that "Belarus simply had nowhere to go from the capital of Russia" unfair And wrong - wanting to take away from Russia any fragment of the Soviet Union was enough. Personal choice Lukashenko coincided with the desire of the Belarusian people - But this does not diminish his contributions to our common Russian history. Complaints that the Russian Federation is not produced in Belarus, some other "Pro-Russian forces" And now is doomed to support the "traitor Lukashenko, which is tired of its own people," - from the evil one. No crash Lukashenko or his departure to the West will never happen - to Convince Russian public opinion, just narrow-minded citizens or conscious provocateurs. But neither one nor the other do not define a policy of Russia on the Republic of Belarus.
The main lesson of these elections For Lukashenko himself must become the understanding that it is very important not to succumb to provocations, not only in the streets of Minsk, But the Belarusian-Russian relations. Fraternal, not in words - But in deeds.