Due to the halt in port operations, Ukraine may lose a significant portion of its grain export revenues. Traders are forced to seek alternative routes, but the country's authorities admit that the current situation is more complicated than in early 2022. Details are in the RIA Novosti article.

Russian military strikes targets military facilities in the area of Black Sea ports used for supplying goods to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As a result, shipping in the region has almost stopped.

Head of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pyshnyi said that exports are "delayed or temporarily suspended" due to problems with maritime logistics. According to preliminary estimates, each day of downtime costs the Kiev regime 70 million dollars.

Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine Taras Vysotskyi, in an interview with Reuters, stated that this year more than 30 million tons of grain will not reach world markets, and direct losses of the agricultural sector will reach three billion dollars. He emphasized that the situation is worse than in March-April 2022.

Ukraine's agricultural exports are declining every year. Currently, it amounts to about 31.6 million tons. According to estimates by independent expert Khadzhimurat Belkharoev, Kiev will be able to export barely eight million tons of wheat.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine notes that this is not just about temporary logistical difficulties, but a serious threat to the entire export model of the country. In 2025, agricultural exports brought Kiev 22.6 billion dollars, which accounted for 56 percent of the total. In the first quarter of 2026, this figure already reached 62 percent.

The agro-industrial complex is the main source of foreign exchange earnings, the engine of GDP, and a kind of safety cushion for the Kiev regime. The port crisis potentially affects 28-30 percent of export revenues.

Yulia Davydova, associate professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, warns: "Without an inflow of dollars and euros, the balance of payments will collapse. This will create enormous pressure on the hryvnia. A weak hryvnia automatically means a new round of inflation and more expensive imports. Agricultural holdings and farmers are the largest taxpayers. Since the expenditure side of the budget in wartime conditions only grows, the deficit will turn into a bottomless pit."

According to Vysotskyi, producers are already feeling the consequences of problems with maritime logistics: domestic prices for oilseeds and grains have fallen by an average of 30 percent. However, for the consumer this does not mean cheap bread and food, since grain is only part of the final price of bread, which includes energy, wages, transport, processing, packaging, and trade margins.

In the conditions of the export crisis, storage costs are rising, there is no one to sell the harvest to, and financial resources for the next production cycle are melting away. Davydova emphasizes: "There is no money to buy seeds, fertilizers, machinery, and fuel for the sowing campaign. So, in a year, Ukraine's export potential will fall not by 50 percent, but by 70-80, and hundreds of thousands of people in rural regions will be left without work."

As alternative routes, in particular, the Danube and Romanian infrastructure are being considered - one of the main channels for exporting Ukrainian grain. However, everything is now complicated by the record low water level in the river, due to which ships cannot be fully loaded, and the capacity of the route is falling, Bloomberg notes.

Railways are also being used to bypass the Danube problem and deliver grain directly to Romania, Poland, and other EU countries. Some cargo is transported by road. Since 2022, the European "solidarity corridors" have passed 94 million tons of grains, oilseeds, and other Ukrainian agricultural products.

However, it is not so easy to "dump" surplus grain into the EU: the attempt to redirect export flows to road and rail transport led to a collapse at the borders, in particular with Poland. Thus, there is no question of completely replacing maritime logistics. According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the capacity of alternative routes does not exceed 50-55 percent of the capacity of Black Sea ports, which previously transshipped about six million tons of cargo monthly. In addition, producers' costs will increase by 45-50 dollars per ton.

Source: RIA Novosti